Saudi Aramco beats estimates on fourth-quarter profit, keeps dividends flowing as Iran war threatens oil exports

Saudi Aramco on Tuesday reported full-year 2025 earnings that beat analysts’ estimates, as investors watch whether the world’s largest crude exporter can capitalize on surging oil prices amid the Iran war.

The Saudi state oil giant reported a full‑year adjusted net income of $104.7 billion, which it described as “robust growth” despite a year of oil‑price volatility.

Fourth‑quarter adjusted profit came in at $25.1 billion, slightly above the median consensus estimate of $24.8 billion compiled by the company.

Free cash flow for the year reached $85.4 billion.

The company also declared a base dividend of $21.89 billion for the fourth quarter, up 3.5% from a year earlier, to be paid in the first quarter of 2026. The company remains one of the world’s biggest dividend payers and a crucial source of income for the Saudi state.

Total shareholder distributions for the year reached $85.5 billion, as the company continued to prioritize payouts despite easing crude prices in 2025.

Aramco also announced a share buyback program of up to $3 billion over 18 months.

Shares of Aramco have risen sharply in recent sessions as oil prices surged amid fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Cash flow

Aramco generated $136.2 billion in operating cash flow last year, driven by what the company said was steady production and strong downstream results. Capital investments totaled $52.2 billion, in line with company guidance and slightly below 2024 levels.

“Our disciplined capital allocation, combined with lower‑cost and highly reliable operations, drove strong financial performance in a year marked by price volatility,” CEO Amin Nasser said in the earnings release.

Crude prices during 2025 fell to $69.2 per barrel, from $80.2 in 2024, reflecting a softer oil market and rising global supply. In recent days, though, crude spiked to nearly $120 per barrel as war in the Middle East escalated.