Published: Monday, January 5, 2026 · 5:50 PM | Updated: Monday, January 5, 2026 · 5:50 PM
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00:00 Speaker A
Brady, it’s good to see you. Obviously, it was an interesting year for crypto in positive and negative ways, mostly negative pricewise. Um, so as we go into this year, um, I guess I would ask first about price in as much as anybody can predict price, but what are the things you’re going to be watching that could be potential catalyst to the up and downside?
00:30 Brady
You know, uh the guys at Castle Island Ventures, uh an investment firm have been saying that they think uh that there is an exchange out there who was wrecked by the um the market disruptions in October. If you remember there was just like massive losses in October, um as a as a bunch of futures went sideways. And they sort of think that might have taken someone big out and so we’ve had four sellers for the last couple of months. If that turns out to be true, if if that really is what’s been holding Bitcoin down, then once that force seller is dealt with, uh, you know, things could look really good. Of course, we see Bitcoin up right now. That’s probably because people are expecting a lot of oil is going to come to market soon.
01:13 Brady
Uh so, you know, those are those are two positive forces. I also think if regulation comes into into focus this year for real, not just like ideas about regulation, which is kind of what 2025 was, uh we’ll see a lot more excitement in the crypto market.
01:36 Speaker A
Yeah, I mean, we had stablecoin regulation uh in 2025, right? The big thing that everybody is looking for now is the so-called Clarity Act, right? That’s going to um it’s sort of the market piping if you will, right? Is that the right way to describe it? How do you think that’s going to play out?
01:58 Brady
Well, first of all, just to note, the stable coin law passed, but it hasn’t actually kicked in yet. So, I mean that’s important. Uh but on the clarity Act. So, I don’t think the clarity Act is going to pass. It’s just like the Senate just hasn’t been able to move that at all. and now uh Cynthia Lumes, who’s been one of the big proponents has announced that she’s retiring, that gives her a lot less political capital to work with in Washington. I just don’t think that they can get it done, but I don’t actually think it’s going to matter because I think Paul Atkins and the SEC along with the CFTC, which is now being run by one of Paul Atkinson’s deputies is going to give the industry all of the regulations that they were hoping for in 2017 and 2018 and that will be more than adequate to um to allow it to move forward in a big way. So, I don’t expect clarity act to move, but I don’t actually think it’s going to matter because I think the SEC will do a good job on this topic.
03:00 Speaker A
So Brady, I think the big question then becomes, if the SEC gives the industry everything it wants, critics would say, whoa, right? There are some red flags there. Everything the industry wants might not be good for investors. So, I guess what’s the risk that something happens, right? Um that, you know, there is a a blow-up of some kind or that there is a public risk of some kind that comes to the four.
03:32 Brady
Yeah, great question. I mean, notably, I don’t mean to say give them everything they want. I think I think they’ll give them enough that it can move forward in a solid way. I I don’t want to overblow it here. but um there, you know, it’s notably, I think a thing that people don’t understand about the way regulation works in the United States is um we have a disclosure-based regime. That means that we expect our regulators to make sure investors have enough information to move forward. Unfortunately, the prior SEC seemed to think that its job was to prevent the public from investing in things that they didn’t want the public to invest in. and that’s just not how security’s laws have been set up in the United States. So, look for the SEC to create rules that such that people can know what they’re actually buying into, but they’re not there to hold investor’s hands. So I guess that’s the first thing. The second thing is I do honestly think probably another giant blow up is going to come. you know, I mean, I I don’t actually think that crypto has had its um.com moment yet. So, yeah, that will probably happen and folks should proceed with caution in the crypto market just as they should proceed in caution in any section of investing.
04:54 Speaker A
And and I know that you’re watching in particular uh prediction markets, which we we don’t necessarily automatically think of as crypto markets, but many of them are set up backed by a blockchain. That’s how they work. Um and so, um what could happen I mean, we’ve already seen enormous growth in that area. How is that going to play out?
05:22 Brady
Yeah, I mean, uh prediction markets aren’t inherently crypto, but they very much have crypto vibes. You know the crypto world was always in the prediction markets long before it actually became a real thing. So I think they’re related. Um, I think that prediction markets have a very bright future. I think they’re only going to go up from here. You know, your viewers may not realize that there’s as much volume in prediction markets right now as there was at the height of the election in 2024. People are using them for a lot more things. Um, but it is an interesting new uh world we’re entering into and I kind of think we’re going to see something unsettling happen in prediction markets. You know, for example, someone might predict that some CEO is going to like lose their job and then do things to help make that happen. You know, I think they there’s going to be a ways in which prediction markets don’t just um help us understand what’s to come in the world, but actually influence what’s going to come in the world. And and once that becomes clear for policy makers, I think they’re going to be a little more anxious about the sector. Doesn’t mean I think it should go away, it’s just that I think we’re going to have to grapple with that reality that they aren’t entirely a a neutral force in society.
06:59 Speaker A
Yeah, I think that’s been the sort of concern about them. Do you think this current regulatory regime would actually do anything about that though?
07:08 Brady
Uh, I think they’re going to keep an eye on it. Yeah, I think I think, you know, it probably makes sense to like let the world actually figure out what the problems are before you make rules to stop the problems rather than try to anticipate the problems ahead of time, you know?
07:27 Speaker A
I guess we’ll see once once it becomes clear what they are. Brady, thank you so much. Appreciate your time this morning.
07:34 Brady
Thanks for having me.
07:35 Speaker A
Thanks.
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