Bitcoin’s seasonal trends explained: 5 things to watch for

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Bitcoin broke out to a new high of 125,000 and change in early October and it quickly fell back into its old trading range. But guess what?

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October is historically one of the best months for Bitcoin. So on today’s stocks and translation, we are taking a look at Bitcoin seasonality and the next potential catalyst for the King of crypto.

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And just a quick reminder that seasonality refers to those recurring pas patterns that we typically see year after year.

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And in this first chart, we’re taking a look at each month of the year broken down and it’s 2018 to 2014 uh 2024.

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Why did we start at 2018? Because that’s when we got Bitcoin futures and that’s when Wall Street started taking notice of Bitcoin.

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If you go back further, you really have a different animal on your hands.

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But what stands out here is a few really positive months. So that’s 18% in July, 11% median in February, and in October, also another 11% median.

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And I’m using the median instead of the average because that’s right in the middle.

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If I use the average, you tend to get bigger numbers to the top side and then bigger numbers to the downside in the negative realms.

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But what you’re going to notice here too is that after October, November and December, they skew negative. So, unlike stocks where you typically get that end- of-the- year rally basically from October through December 31st, not necessarily so in Bitcoin.

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However, we do have this positive catalyst right ahead of us.

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And here’s another look at the month- by- month breakdown with win percentage. and what really stands out here is October is 86% positive going back to 2018.

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And that ties February over here, which was also a good month, and it’s a bit bigger than July, which was the best month. So, odds are working in the bull’s favor here.

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And one more thing is that if you break it down on a day-by-day basis, I have the entire year here from January 1st to December 31st.

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and in white is what the map is telling us. That’s again, the median from 2018 to 2024 and the green 2025 year to date, we are right now at the period of time when it historically inflex up.

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And so, the first, actually the middle of October into the first week of November is a very seasonally bullish time of year.

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And you can see how some of the swings that we’ve had in this year and there was some interruptions, albeit with the uh post- liberation day sell- off, a lot of the recent swings have kind of coincided with the map.

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So things are definitely working in the bull’s favor right now. We’ll have to see what comes of that.

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And uh let’s take a look at what to watch now because Bitcoin investors should be paying attention to a number of things.

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First, we have bank custody of Bitcoin and crypto assets that’s starting to roll out right now.

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The SEC gave the green light on that way back in January, but banks have lots of regulators, they tend to move slowly.

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So many investment advisors have been waiting for the safety of bank custody. So watch out for these press releases from some of the biggest players.

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Then, number two, the ghost of Mount Gox still haunting the black the the blockchain. Way back in 2014, the world’s largest crypto exchange failed spectacularly.

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And most of the confiscated coins has been distributed back to the owners, but we’re finally up against a hard deadline on Halloween, October 31st. How fitting.

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There’s a small chance that some whales could emerge and dump their new holdings after getting repaid, but that’s just a small risk.

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Then, in the spring of 26, the IRS is rolling out new tax forms to report crypto sale.

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It’s going to be a little bit more of a burden for crypto traders, and there could be a few jitters around tax day, but it’s still a pretty small risk.

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You do have to watch ETF flows because something is definitely going on there.

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Spot crypto funds have raked in $40 billion so far this year, and any let up in flows could signal lower crypto demand, which impacts price.

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And finally, watch the current trading range in Bitcoin, which has been in place since July from roughly 108,000 to the downside to 125,000 to the upside.

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And remember, Bitcoin is famous for its rug pulls and false breakouts, both to the upside and also to the downside.

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And tune in to the Stocks and Translation podcast for more jargon busting deep dives. New episodes can be found on Tuesdays and Thursdays on Yahoo Finance’s website or wherever you find your podcasts.

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