Chip giant ASML raises 2026 guidance as AI semiconductor demand stays strong

ASML raised its sales forecast for 2026 after it beat first-quarter revenue and profit expectations, driven by continued demand for chips related to AI.

Here’s how ASML did versus LSEG consensus estimates for the first quarter:

• Net sales: 8.8 billion euros ($10.4 billion) versus 8.5 billion euros expected
• Net profit: 2.8 billion euros versus 2.5 billion euros expected

The company previously forecast that its first-quarter sales would be between 8.2 billion euros and 8.9 billion euros.

The Dutch firm said it now sees 2026 net sales to be between 36 billion euros and 40 billion euros, compared to a previous forecast of 34 billion euros to 39 billion euros. 

“The semiconductor industry’s growth outlook continues to solidify, driven by ongoing AI-related infrastructure investments,” ASML CEO Christophe Fouque said in a press release.

“Demand for chips is outpacing supply. In response, our customers are accelerating their capacity expansion plans for 2026 and beyond, supported by long-term agreements with their customers.”

The Dutch firm is often seen as a bellwether for chip demand as it makes the tools required to manufacture the most advanced semiconductors.

One of its top customers, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), last week reported record first-quarter revenue as demand for AI chips continues to remain strong.

There is a continued shortage of memory chips which has driven prices of that component to unprecedented highs. Memory is key to AI systems and data centers. As a result, South Korean firms Samsung and SK Hynix are planning to ramp up production capacity, which will require ASML machinery.

ASML said 51% of net sales of its new tools in the first quarter went toward memory, versus 30% in the previous quarter. Customers in South Korea accounted for 45% of sales, while those in Taiwan represented 23%.

However, ASML is facing its own challenges, including headwinds in China, where it is not able to ship its most advanced machines because of export restrictions. Earlier this month, a group of bipartisan U.S. lawmakers introduced a law that would even ban ASML’s less-advanced machines for export to China. That law still needs to work its way through the U.S. legislative process.

System sales to China fell to 19% of overall sales in the first quarter, compared to 36% in the December quarter.