Published: Monday, February 2, 2026 · 10:15 PM | Updated: Monday, February 2, 2026 · 10:15 PM
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00:00 Jared
We got to talk about some records. might as well start with the transports. and it all started this morning off of that hotter than expected ISM report. And so that speaks us to the strength of the manufacturing part of the economy and it’s only one reading, so it doesn’t necessarily make a trend, but I’ll just show you one stock in particular. And by the way, these are all the Dow Jones transport transportation index components. And there you can see that nice jolt after 10:00 a.m. So really unexpected there.
00:27 Jared
FedEx up to a record high. Then you see Delta, Southwest and United up 4-5% here and then names that we don’t talk about every day, like really into the logistics of the transportation sector, uh, sector, JB Hunt, Ryder, Landstar, those up four, six, 6%, and the list goes on. Um, and I thought I’d show you too, do a little bit of Dow theory. And so that’s when we compare the Dow Industrials, and that’s in purple down here, to the Dow transports, and the transports are really surging.
00:54 Jared
They’re up almost 9% this year. You don’t always see that. Usually the transports are lagging a bit, at least they have over the last few years. Uh for the most part, but they have really surged ahead. And you want the Dow Industrials and the transports to confirm each other and the strength is confirming strength. Dow Industrials, it looks like they’re down like all the way down here, but they are almost at a record. So this for me is confirmation. Also mentioned industrials, XLI large cap Industrials closed at a record, and so did Staples, and that was a Walmart story. new uh new CEO’s taken the helm there.
01:14 Speaker B
Now, market historian that you are, what does history suggest, my friend, about February and the rest of the year?
01:21 Jared
Well, we just closed January and according to statistics from Ryan Dietrick, uh, when you close January green, you have about a 90% chance of closing the entire year green. So things are looking good from that perspective. And let’s take a look at some of the seasonal tailwinds right now. Uh, this is my own personal market map. This goes back, this takes S&P 500 data going all the way back to 1928, but it only includes the years in which we had the same day of the week.
01:50 Jared
Uh, so for instance, you’d need to see February 2nd land on a Monday. and going back to almost 100 years, we only find about 13 of those uh years. and so you put it all together and you get this map right here. And I found this map to be particularly useful over the last few years. I also have year to date in green. It’s a little hard to see but uh I think we were up what 1.3, 1.4% in January and the model said something like a little bit higher than that. So we’re right on track.
02:11 Jared
As you can see, we rise with a few uh zigs and zags into April, then we decline into May, then we rise into July, early August, decline into October, and then into the beginning of December, then kind of flat line, no real real Santa Claus rally according to this model. We don’t have to follow this, but you can see if you’re looking at the percentages there, 15%, fourth year of the bull market, that would not be too bad.
02:30 Speaker B
Now I want to end here. Yes. on Bitcoin. Oh. Because Jared, when you’re right, you’re right, and you have said on this very show, the line in the sand, the Jared Blickley line in the sand, you said it. Time and again, you said it, 75,000.
02:44 Jared
Yeah. What we hit. Okay, but now what? Now what? Alright, so let’s Bitcoin Destiny here. Let’s take a look at a chart. Why was I saying 75,000? It was just the charts were just screaming this level. So, let’s pull this up. Take me a second and we’ll see our crypto heat map. Uh not looking as good as the transports today over the last, ooh, that’s not it. Here we go. Crypto. We do see a lot of green here. This is over the last 24 hours. If you measured since Friday, not going to look so great.
03:08 Jared
But here is a three-year view. And so 75,000 was basically 25, 2025 low and the 2024 high. And so that’s why I thought we’re going to tag that. We might be off to the races. So looking good pretty soon. I’d like to see us climb over 80 and kind of hold that. Uh, but if we start getting below 75,000, the flip side of that trade, and we start using 75,000 as resistance like this, and we start going down, that is my crypto winter scenario.
03:38 Jared
So line in the sand has been respected for now. low is 74,500. That’s good enough. We could even go down and test it again, but I need to see a quick rise back above 75-80,000.
03:51 Speaker B
Alright, thank you, buddy. Thank you. You bet.
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