Published: Tuesday, December 2, 2025 · 11:00 PM | Updated: Tuesday, December 2, 2025 · 11:00 PM
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00:00 Speaker A
Let’s uh focus on Apple first and this is a volatility here or the dollar. We’ll get to that in a second, but we’re going to talk about Apple’s six straight records. In fact, it’s been up seven days straight. Six of those, the last ones were record closes. So let’s take a look. I’m going to show our uh Nasdaq 100 heat map. Let’s do that. And we can see over the last 10 days, it’s been up roughly 7%. and uh, this is kind of a comeback story for Apple.
00:41 Speaker A
Here’s the last 10 days and I will show you also the year to date, which really shows you how it was kind of lagging the rest of the market for a long time. But there you go. that’s 7% in 10 days. Here is the year to date and you can see after the April 8th low that so many markets rocketed up after, well, they just went sideways for two months. And so that was Apple’s story until very recently. Fortunately, it’s come alive and it’s not just sector rotation that is the lifeblood of bull markets, it’s individual stock rotation.
01:14 Speaker A
And as Nvidia here is up another 86 basis points. That’s nice to see. Also want to mention that another seven-day streak was notched by the Philly Sox and that is the chip index and we’re seeing not a lot of outsize uh performance by Nvidia today, but Intel up almost uh 8 and a half% there. NXP up 8%, Texas instruments up 4%. So we’re really seeing the socks and a lot of the chip indices do their jobs. So, whatever the uh market might tell you or some of the headlines might tell you that
01:48 Speaker A
AI chip, I believe is still alive and well here even if we’re not talking about record highs by Nvidia every single day.
01:55 Speaker B
Now, I was out yesterday. Yes. as you know, but I heard there’s some some interesting things going on with the dollar, the yen. What’d I miss?
02:02 Speaker A
Yes, so the yen was kind of an interesting tricky situation yesterday for a brief moment. I’m not going to rehash all the details because it looks like it’s over with, but nevertheless, it really got me to looking at the US dollar index and there was a some movement and this is what I was actually looking at at the very beginning of this segment. This is the year to date on the US dollar index. And you can see it’s gone sideways for about six months here, but if you look, you can see it’s kind of a rounded base.
02:37 Speaker A
and what I really was looking at is the 50-day moving average and that’s that blue line that you’re seeing right there. And if you squint, you can see we just barely touched it yesterday and we actually jumped off of it. So I’m going to dial this down to a two-month chart and then I’m going to put some candlesticks here and you can see, if you squint, um this is what we call a wick on the candlestick or a tail or a couple of other things. The shadow is also what it’s called.
03:02 Speaker A
Nevertheless, we dipped down to that big fat 99 level and then we got a nice bounce up and we’re closing above. As long as the uh US dollar index is above this, um we still have the potential for this thing to surge above 100.5. And the reason that’s big is because Wall Street is very much positioned short. There’s a lot of bearish sentiment against the dollar and I think that would squeeze not only commodities, not only crypto, but maybe stocks as well. So what I’m watching for is the dollar
03:36 Speaker A
index around this 50-day moving average to the downside. If it cracks it, well, that’s probably going to be good for the markets. And then if we race higher and race above this red line here at 100.5, well, I think that’s going to be a problem for the market and that’s not what the market is expecting in December because if everything goes well, well, we should have we should be watching paint dry in a couple of weeks and you know, that’s that’s the way things are supposed to happen here.
04:02 Speaker A
Um, this is a 10-year T-note yield. Also want to point out that it moved, had a big move yesterday. Um, let me put a year to date and get all these lines off of it so we can see what’s going on here. Um, as you can see, it’s at the bottom end of its range here. Usually the trouble in the bond market comes when it moves too fast. It’s not the absolute levels. However, having said that when the 30-year, when the 30-year was right up about 5, 5.1% in here,
04:34 Speaker A
that was causing, that level was causing a problem for the market. The fact that it’s down here, I don’t think the levels are a problem, but if it were to rapidly rise along with the US dollar, that would be a problem. So we’re just talking about things to watch about in the future, not that we have these problems right now.
04:53 Speaker B
What about Bitcoin?
04:54 Speaker A
Let’s take a look at Bitcoin here. Yeah, it was a, I always look if you take the 5:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. close basically over the last 24 hours or so, we were having the best day since April 9th. That was that day that the Nasdaq went up about, what was it, 10% something like that. An incredible day. So it’s interesting that it’s doing that right now. And let me pull up the uh Bitcoin ticker here. There we go. 91,507.
05:27 Speaker A
I’ll just show you the last five days price action because here’s when we had that huge dip and this was actually concurrent with uh that Bank of Japan announcement or the the hint that they were going to raise rates. There was this huge downside reaction, probably an over reaction in Bitcoin. Nevertheless, what I like about this chart is it found support right around 85,000, then we saw it rocket back up. So this is, is it the is this a bottom right here?
06:03 Speaker A
It could be. Um I’m a little skeptical because I think we need to wash out all the cheap stops below 75,000. I’d like to see to get really bullish. I’d love to see 75,000 taken out. Um wash out all those stops and then see it rocket right back up to like 75, 80, 85,000 within a couple of days. Absent that, um, you know, it’s nice to see these things, but it could be a sucker’s rally and really until we clear 92,000 and then
06:44 Speaker A
the big number is 110,000. That’s pretty far away. Until we clear 110,000, I don’t think we’re uh clear.
06:50 Speaker B
Looking ahead to what’s on your radar?
06:53 Speaker A
Um, we have a couple so we have a fed announcement, we have CPI, we’re going to get November payrolls two weeks late. One of the things I was looking at this morning, there’s a lot of interesting discussion around the Supreme Court decision on the Trump tariffs. And we don’t know when that’s going to be. We had arguments on November 5th. So the Supreme Court could make an announcement this month, they could do it next spring and so that’s a pretty wide period of time.
07:23 Speaker A
But it’s interesting because I’ve heard arguments that it would be dollar supportive and dollar negative at the same time, uh coming from different sides. So we’ll have to see where it lands, but that’s why I was outlining my logic on the dollar. All you got to do is watch the price action above 100.5. Um that’s a problem and then below that 50-day moving average, probably smooth sailing into the end of the year.
07:51 Speaker B
All right, thank you buddy. Appreciate it.
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