Series of court decisions weaken Democrats’ odds of winning the House

Two court rulings in the past two weeks have hit the chances that Democrats flip control of the House in November, according to traders on prediction markets platform Kalshi. 

Odds that the party wins control of the lower chamber have fallen to 75% from 85.3% on April 28. 

On April 29, the Supreme Court ruled in Louisiana v. Callais that a majority-Black congressional district in Louisiana was invalid, limiting how much race can be considered when drawing congressional maps and weakening part of the Voting Rights Act. 

That district, like many of the other majority-black congressional districts across the South, is represented by a Democrat. Louisiana is moving to redraw its maps in a move that will likely see one less Democratic member of Congress sent from the state. 

Other states have rushed to redraw their maps in reaction to the decision too. Tennessee last week approved a map to alter the boundaries of a majority-Black district in Memphis, endangering the re-election of Democrat Rep. Steve Cohen. Alabama and South Carolina are also considering redrawing their maps, potentially endangering up to three Democratic incumbents.

Democrats were dealt another blow on Friday when the Virginia Supreme Court overruled a referendum that voters narrowly approved in April to alter their congressional map, which could have sent up to four additional Democratic members to Congress. That decision will leave Virginia’s current congressional districts in place for the 2026 election, and limit the number of seats Democrats can expect to win in the state in their quest for House control.

After the Virginia referendum, Florida moved to redistrict their map, hoping to add four additional Republican seats. That proposal was signed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled in Callais.

While Democrats are still favored to win control of the House, the odds they do it are at their lowest level since late December.

The redistricting scramble comes as primary election season is well underway. West Virginia and Nebraska go to the polls on Tuesday, where Kalshi traders favor John Cavanaugh to be the Democratic nominee in Nebraska’s second congressional district, a seat the party will have to win if they want to flip control of the House. Kalshi traders think President Donald Trump-backed Brinker Harding is certain to be the Republican nominee.

Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.

Markets shift and headlines fade, but the core principles of building long-term wealth remain constant. Join us for our third CNBC Pro LIVE, where investors of all backgrounds – from financial professionals to everyday individuals – come together to cut through the noise and gain actionable strategies for smarter, more disciplined investing. No matter where you’re starting from, you’ll leave with clearer thinking, stronger strategies. Enter your email here to get a discount code.