Published: Tuesday, February 3, 2026 · 10:16 PM | Updated: Tuesday, February 3, 2026 · 10:16 PM
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00:00 Jared Blikre
Got to talk about software looking a little sick, but this is nothing new. We’ve been tracking the dichotomy between semiconductors and software for a while. Neither one had a particularly good day, but uh software came out way worse. and let’s just take a look. This is our heat map of software today. Only Cisco in the green. This is not comprehensive, but you sort by performance, you can see a lot of these names down 9 10%. So this is kind of a big deal here. Then if we take a look at the year to date, uh it gets a lot worse. We’re seeing on the bottom row, Teledoc down 27 all the way to hubspot down almost 40%. Only Cisco and Zoom in the green here. And then you take a look at semiconductors year to date. That is a vastly different story. Notably, Nvidia and Broadcom are down, but the other, the smaller ones are making up for it. and you can see that SanDisk almost up 200%, Western Digital up 70. Um and let’s check out a comparison between two ETFs. We got IGV versus Sox. and guess which one is positive. That would be the Chipstock Sox that’s up 15% versus IGV down 20%. And if we show a one year, we can see where things kind of diverged and here are those scary April Lows we had post liberation day last year, but it was really in October when soft or excuse me, when uh Chip stocks kind of for the most part went up and software was just flatlining and then this year, well, actually starting in December and then accelerating into January, we just saw software kind of fall off. So, uh, a lot of a lot of this is being uh scribed to a I and that whole story, but uh it’s it’s kind of telling when Microsoft cannot catch a bid and Microsoft is down from 4 trillion to a $3 trillion company now.
02:11 Speaker A
All right. So software looking a little sick. What’s not sick?
02:13 Jared Blikre
Ah, for that, we got to look at value and let’s try to value that. And I’ll go back to my comparison screen here because I got something interesting. I’m going to show you the Russell 1000 which is large large cap stocks, growth versus value. And let me just bring this, oops, let me just bring this down to our year to date first. There we go. And so value is up 5% this year, growth is down 3%. What’s the difference? Growth is your your tech names, uh the companies that are just growing at a large rate. Value tends to be those stocks doesn’t mean that they’re necessarily depressed always in price, but a lot of times they are and those are the stories where you’re looking to unlock value. So GameStop was a classic example 1919, uh 2019 and 2020. Michael Burry went long, of course, of Roaring Kitty all of that good stuff. But suffice to say that uh so we’re seeing seeing a big divergence this year. and again, if I show a one year chart, you can see, well, they’re almost about the same from one year ago, but that’s because growth got absolutely killed here in those post liberation day lows, whereas Value held up a little bit more. and I’m gonna show you another way of looking at this. If we go to the large cap sectors and we’ll keep this on year to date, if I look at what is winning this year, energy, material, staples, industrials, utilities, all of these except materials are potential value sectors. And why is materials in there? That’s because it’s up because of gold and silver. So suffice to say that the value stocks have really been leading this year.
03:49 Speaker A
So let’s switch gears here talk about Bitcoin because did I see Bitcoin drop below the Jared Blikre line in the sand? Is that what I saw?
04:02 Jared Blikre
It did. Um let’s check out the latest price. I I said if it goes below 70,000 probably crypto winter, but if it hits as if it if it hits 70 and it bounces back and stays above 80, well, then we could have a different scenario. That could just be a wash out of the week long. So here’s Bitcoin down 14%. And here is that big sell off that we saw today. Let me put the three year back on so we can see why I like 75. It was the 2024 highs, the 2025 lows and there we go. Now we have dipped below it and what I liked, I’m gonna show you the five day price action here. What I liked yesterday is we hit a low and you can’t even see this because we need candlesticks, but we bounced up pretty sharply off of that. But what I don’t like is we should have continued that. Instead, we just kind of leaked lower and then we had another uh another waterfall to the downside. So I’m not counting out the bull case here, but it’s looking not the best. And if 75,000 ends up being a ceiling instead of a floor and then we head below 70, well, that’s that’s the crypto winter scenario.
05:22 Speaker A
All right. Thank you buddy.
05:23 Jared Blikre
Thanks.
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