American Airlines profit forecast for the rest of the year tops estimates

American Airlines posted a smaller-than-expected loss for the third quarter, and its outlook for the rest of the year came in ahead of Wall Street forecasts, sending the stock higher.

American expects to earn between 45 cents and 75 cents per share in the fourth quarter, above the 31 per share cents analysts expected. That brought American’s full-year earnings guidance to between 65 cents and 95 cents per share, well above the projected 43 cents per share Wall Street forecast. The carrier expects its fourth-quarter capacity to grow between 3% and 5% over the same period last year.

Once a slam-dunk quarter, airlines have found it harder to make money in the summer than in years past. Schools reopen earlier than they used to and some travelers opt to take bigger trips later in the year, when the weather is cooler and there are fewer crowds at many popular destinations.

American posted a net loss of $114 million, or 17 cents a share on revenue of $13.69 billion. Revenue was up 0.3% from last year. 

American’s third-quarter outlook in July had disappointed investors, though other carriers had also cut their profit outlooks for the year after demand dropped in early 2025 as customers weighed a slew of on-again-off-again tariffs and economic uncertainty.

An oversupply of domestic flights this year prompted carriers to trim their growth plans to avoid unprofitable flying.

Here is how American performed in the third quarter compared with Wall Street estimates compiled by LSEG:

• Loss per share: 17 cents adjusted vs. a loss of 28 cents expected
• Revenue: $13.69 billion vs. $13.63 billion expected