Geopolitical Risks Have Limited Impact on Oil Futures, Says Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs analysts, including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, have noted that geopolitical risks in oil futures are limited. The ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran have not significantly impacted oil supply due to high spare capacity.

As market concerns ease, attention is shifting back to the potential risk of oversupply in 2025. However, the anticipated surge in supply from non-OPEC+ oil-producing countries in 2025 is not guaranteed.

Forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Kpler, the Energy Information Administration (EIA), and S&P indicate a supply range of 900,000 to 1.9 million barrels per day. For next year, Goldman Sachs projects a supply growth of 1.5 million barrels per day from non-OPEC+ countries, with an average oil price of $76 per barrel.

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