Winmark Stock Gives Every Indication Of Being Modestly Overvalued

The stock of Winmark (NAS:WINA, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being modestly overvalued, according to GuruFocus Value calculation. GuruFocus Value is GuruFocus’ estimate of the fair value at which the stock should be traded. It is calculated based on the historical multiples that the stock has traded at, the past business growth and analyst estimates of future business performance. If the price of a stock is significantly above the GF Value Line, it is overvalued and its future return is likely to be poor. On the other hand, if it is significantly below the GF Value Line, its future return will likely be higher. At its current price of $196.52 per share and the market cap of $727.5 million, Winmark stock appears to be modestly overvalued. GF Value for Winmark is shown in the chart below.

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Because Winmark is relatively overvalued, the long-term return of its stock is likely to be lower than its business growth, which averaged 2.1% over the past five years.

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Investing in companies with poor financial strength has a higher risk of permanent loss of capital. Thus, it is important to carefully review the financial strength of a company before deciding whether to buy its stock. Looking at the cash-to-debt ratio and interest coverage is a great starting point for understanding the financial strength of a company. Winmark has a cash-to-debt ratio of 0.59, which is in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Retail – Cyclical. GuruFocus ranks the overall financial strength of Winmark at 5 out of 10, which indicates that the financial strength of Winmark is fair. This is the debt and cash of Winmark over the past years:

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It is less risky to invest in profitable companies, especially those with consistent profitability over long term. A company with high profit margins is usually a safer investment than those with low profit margins. Winmark has been profitable 10 over the past 10 years. Over the past twelve months, the company had a revenue of $66.1 million and earnings of $8.25 a share. Its operating margin is 64.68%, which ranks better than 100% of the companies in the industry of Retail – Cyclical. Overall, the profitability of Winmark is ranked 9 out of 10, which indicates strong profitability. This is the revenue and net income of Winmark over the past years:

Growth is probably the most important factor in the valuation of a company. GuruFocus research has found that growth is closely correlated with the long term performance of a company’s stock. The faster a company is growing, the more likely it is to be creating value for shareholders, especially if the growth is profitable. The 3-year average annual revenue growth rate of Winmark is 2.1%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Retail – Cyclical. The 3-year average EBITDA growth rate is 5.6%, which ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Retail – Cyclical.

One can also evaluate a company’s profitability by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Return on invested capital (ROIC) measures how well a company generates cash flow relative to the capital it has invested in its business. The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the rate that a company is expected to pay on average to all its security holders to finance its assets. If the return on invested capital exceeds the weighted average cost of capital, the company is likely creating value for its shareholders. During the past 12 months, Winmark’s ROIC is 150.96 while its WACC came in at 6.44. The historical ROIC vs WACC comparison of Winmark is shown below:

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To conclude, the stock of Winmark (NAS:WINA, 30-year Financials) gives every indication of being modestly overvalued. The company’s financial condition is fair and its profitability is strong. Its growth ranks in the middle range of the companies in the industry of Retail – Cyclical. To learn more about Winmark stock, you can check out its 30-year Financials here.

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