Glaxo Should Consider Buying a Headache (Company), Says Industry Consultant

Drug consulting group Evaluate thinks GlaxoSmithKline PLC (

GSK, Financial) should consider making a run at Biohaven Pharmaceutical Holding Company Ltd. (BHVN, Financial) after the latter recorded outstanding third-quarter sales of its oral migraine therapy, Nurtec ODT.

Evaluate thinks adding Biohaven would not only help get activist investor Elliott Management off Glaxo’s back, but would give the British pharma giant a treatment to go along with its migraine medication Imitrex.

Sounds like a good idea, but there seems to be one big hangup. Biohaven, with a market cap approaching $9 billion, is twice as expensive as it was just six months ago, currently trading at about $135.

Glaxo has the resources to make the deal, but the question is whether the potential payoff would be worth it. Nurtec ODT’s net present value, as calculated by Evaluate Omnium, is $3 billion. Still, the company hasn’t shied away from questionable acquisitions, most recently the buyout of Tesaro.

Nurtec ODT is the only drug approved by the Food and Drug Administration for both treating and preventing migraines. Sales of the medication trounced expectations once again in the third quarter, reaching $136 million and bringing total revenue to $336 million since the drug was launched in March 2020, according to the company. Biohaven claims doctors have written more than 1 million prescriptions for the medication.

The sales figure topped even some of the more optimistic predictions from Wall Street analysts. Piper Sandler had raised its projected sales figure to $122 million, while Mizuho Securities expected revenue of $110 million.

Nurtec ODT now leads the market among new oral migraine medications with more than 60% of new-to-brand prescriptions in its class, according to Biohaven. It first won U.S. approval as an acute treatment in February 2020 and competes with AbbVie Inc.’s (

ABBV, Financial) Ubrelvy and Eli Lilly and Co.’s (LLY, Financial) Lilly’s Reyvow for that use.

Earlier this year, Biohaven received approval to sell Nurtec ODT as a preventive treatment. Other drugs for that indication are all injectables belonging to Eli Lilly, Amgen Inc. (

AMGN, Financial) and Teva (TEVA, Financial). Those companies’ considerable market shares are vulnerable to the Biohaven treatment because it can be taken by the much easier oral route.

A migraine is a headache that can cause severe throbbing pain or a pulsing sensation, usually on one side of the head, according to the Mayo Clinic. It’s often accompanied by nausea, vomiting and extreme sensitivity to light and sound. Migraine attacks can last for hours to days, and the pain can be so severe that it interferes with daily activities.

Nearly one in four U.S. households include someone with migraines, reports the Migraine Research Foundation. About 12% of the population – including children – suffers from migraines. Around 18% of American women, 6% of men and 10% of children experience migraines. Migraines are most common between the ages of 18 and 44.

The pervasiveness of migraines translates into an excellent commercial opportunity. 360 Research Reports the “Acute Migraine Drugs Market” will grow at a compound annual rate of 7.3% in terms of revenue during the next five years, with the global market reaching nearly $3 billion by 2026.

Other companies competing in the global migraine market include Pfizer Inc. (

PFE, Financial), Novartis (NVS, Financial), Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (NSE:SUNPHARMA, Financial), Endo International (ENDP, Financial), Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Financial).