CBOT corn fair valuation w/ latest WASDE data

I plugged all WASDE corn data, along with PCE (for inflation adjustment) into a multivariate regression fit against following month average futures prices, since 2010. Model output is at $6.12~. statistical fit details, graphs are available here.

It feels a bit too high, given that I think the probability distribution for crop outcomes next season isn't skewed toward another shortfall. Or am I missing some kind of critical issue here?