Academy Sports (ASO) Price Target Reduced, Hold Rating Maintained | ASO Stock News

A recent analysis by Truist has adjusted the price target for Academy Sports (ASO, Financial), lowering it from $51 to $45. Despite this adjustment, the analyst has maintained a Hold rating for the company’s shares. A significant development for Academy Sports is the introduction of the Jordan product line across its retail and online platforms, marking a pivotal enhancement in its offerings. Although there are concerns over inflation risks potentially driven by tariffs, the analyst expresses optimism about the company’s management and their strategic execution in the present market environment.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast

Based on the one-year price targets offered by 18 analysts, the average target price for Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc (ASO, Financial) is $55.94 with a high estimate of $70.00 and a low estimate of $38.00. The average target implies an upside of 44.28% from the current price of $38.78. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc (ASO) Forecast page.

Based on the consensus recommendation from 20 brokerage firms, Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc’s (ASO, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.2, indicating “Outperform” status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.

Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc (ASO, Financial) in one year is $59.33, suggesting a upside of 53.01% from the current price of $38.775. GF Value is GuruFocus’ estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business’ performance. More detailed data can be found on the Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc (ASO) Summary page.

ASO Key Business Developments

Release Date: March 20, 2025

• Net Sales: $1.68 billion for Q4, a 6.6% decline year-over-year.
• Comparable Sales: Decreased by 3% in Q4.
• Net Income: $133.6 million for Q4.
• Diluted Earnings Per Share: $1.89 for Q4.
• Adjusted Net Income: $139 million for Q4.
• Adjusted Diluted Earnings Per Share: $1.96 for Q4.
• Gross Margin: 32.2% for Q4, down 110 basis points year-over-year.
• SG&A Expenses: Increased by $10 million in Q4, excluding the extra week last year.
• Cash Position: $289 million at the end of Q4.
• Inventory: $1.3 billion, a 9.6% increase year-over-year.
• Free Cash Flow: $342 million for fiscal 2024.
• New Store Openings: 16 new stores in fiscal 2024, with plans for 20-25 new stores in 2025.
• Dividend Increase: 18% increase, resulting in $0.13 per share.
• 2025 Guidance: Net sales expected to range from $6.1 billion to $6.3 billion.
• 2025 Gross Margin Rate: Expected to range from 34.0% to 34.5%.
• 2025 GAAP Net Income: Expected between $375 million and $410 million.
• 2025 Adjusted Net Income: Expected between $400 million and $435 million.
• 2025 GAAP Diluted EPS: Expected between $5.40 and $5.85.
• 2025 Adjusted Diluted EPS: Expected between $5.75 and $6.20.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

• Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc (ASO, Financial) exceeded its midpoint guidance for both net sales and adjusted earnings per share in the fourth quarter.
• The company saw strong performance in its outdoor category, with net sales growth of 2% driven by hunting, fishing, and camping.
• Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc (ASO) successfully opened 16 new stores in 2024, expanding its presence to 19 states.
• The company launched the myAcademy Rewards program, enrolling over 11 million customers, which showed strong engagement over the holiday season.
• Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc (ASO) plans to open 20 to 25 new stores in 2025, expanding its footprint to 21 states and reaching over 300 stores.

Negative Points

• Net sales for the fourth quarter were $1.68 billion, representing a 6.6% decline compared to the previous year.
• Comparable sales decreased by 3% in the fourth quarter, with a decline in comp transactions by 5.9%.
• Gross margin rate declined by 110 basis points in the fourth quarter due to higher freight and distribution costs.
• The company faced challenges with its Georgia distribution facility, impacting supply chain productivity.
• Academy Sports and Outdoors Inc (ASO) anticipates a challenging first quarter in 2025, with expectations of negative comp sales and earnings per share.